OSCARS 2017 PREDICTIONS

Oscars 2017 Predictions: Will Moonlight beat La La Land? Stats, trends and my personal picks

By Anna MM Vetticad

The Oscars are always political, but this year the function and the selections will no doubt be more so than ever. Already, the directors of the five nominated films in the Best Foreign Language category have issued a joint statement about rising xenophobia worldwide. Mentions of Donald Trump are expected to dominate winners’ speeches. And last year’s #OscarsSoWhite campaign is likely to be a major factor in the choices this year, which already has an unprecedented number of non-white nominees.

With just a day to go for the announcement, here are my predictions for the four most high-profile gongs of Oscars 2017:

BEST PICTURE:

Nominees:

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

With 14 nominations and universal critical acclaim, La La Land is the odds-on favourite to pick up the most prestigious trophy of the night. The film shares the record for most noms ever with All About Eve (1950) and Titanic (1997). The big question on the big day will be whether it will equal or beat the record for maximum wins, held by Ben-Hur (1959), Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) each with 11 trophies to its credit.

Statistics by and large seem to favour La La Land. Damien Chazelle’s deliciously energetic yet contemplative musical has already scooped up Best Picture awards at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes (in the musical or comedy category). It also won the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award, considered a strong indicator of who will bag the top Oscar. Since its inception in 1990, 19 out of 28 PGA winners have gone on to carry away the Best Picture Oscar.

If La La Land does not win, the film with the best chance of pulling off an upset is Moonlight, a poor black boy’s journey to adulthood under the crushing burden of a neglectful, drug-addicted mother, racial prejudice, homophobia and poverty. Already, Moonlight has taken home the Best Picture Golden Globe in the drama category.

Personally though, this is not my favourite of the nominated films. Moonlight was moving and thematically relevant but not, to my mind, as deeply satisfying as some of the other films in this category. Clearly, most critics across the world and in India disagree with me. So be it.

In a contest between La La Land and Moonlight, I would pick La La Land, a film of profound sadness despite its apparent liveliness. But my personal favourite from this shortlist is not even La La Land. My vote goes to the immensely inspiring and uplifting Hidden Figures. The true story of how black women overcame excruciating racial and gender discrimination to play a key role in America’s space programme is, to my mind, the most beautiful – and beautifully acted – film of the nine in contention. I am deriving hope from an award it won this season that, like PGA, is considered highly predictive

Hidden Figures walked off with the trophy for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the year’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. Since 2008, six winners of SAG’s best cast award have gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar. Could this year be the seventh?

Likely winner: La La Land

Possible spoiler, very close: Moonlight

My personal favourite: Hidden Figures

My second choice (and very close): La La Land

BEST DIRECTOR:

Nominees:

Barry Jenkins for Moonlight

Damien Chazelle for La La Land

Dennis Villeneuve for Arrival

Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea

Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge

This one is as neck-and-neck as the Best Picture race. If La La Land wins the top honour this year, then it is possible that Academy members may choose to compensate Moonlight by electing Barry Jenkins as Best Director.

Still, this season’s trends favour Chazelle. He dominated the Golden Globes where he won Best Director and Best Screenplay trophies, picked up a BAFTA for Best Director and won the highly prophetic Directors Guild of America Award. That last one is a statistical clincher, since the DGA winner has gone on to get the equivalent Oscar all but seven times since 1948.

For the record, Chazelle should have received a Best Director nomination at the 2015 Oscars for his cracking music-themed film Whiplash. As things stand, this is his first Best Director Oscar nom.

Likely winner: Damien Chazelle

Likely spoiler (and very close): Barry Jenkins

My personal favourite: Damien Chazelle

Should have been nominated: Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures

BEST ACTRESS:

Nominees:

Emma Stone for La La Land

Isabelle Huppert for Elle

Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins

Natalie Portman for Jackie

Ruth Negga for Loving

In a category filled with brilliant women all of whom delivered brilliant performances, Emma Stone is a frontrunner going by the season’s trends. Her turn as a young woman who defies socially prescribed choices to follow her dreams, took her out of her career comfort zone into a genre that required her to sing and dance in addition to act on screen. She did all three with equal aplomb.

She has already won the year’s Golden Globe (in the comedy or musical category), SAG and BAFTA Awards. Her performance in La La Land has earned her accolades across platforms, from the popular to the hard-core arty and serious, including 2016’s Best Actress trophy at Venice, the world’s oldest film festival. Although Natalie Portman beat her at the Critics Choice Awards and Isabelle Huppert won the Best Actress Golden Globe in the drama category, Stone is seen as a shoo-in for an Oscar. A loss for her will be a big surprise.

Most likely winner: Emma Stone

Closest competitors: Isabelle Huppert and Natalie Portman 

My personal favourite (tough one): Emma Stone

Should have been nominated: Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures

BEST ACTOR:

Nominees:

Andrew Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge

Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea

Denzel Washington for Fences

Ryan Gosling for La La Land

Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic

This category is harder to predict than the Best Actress this year because the awards season has not thrown up a clear frontrunner. Casey Affleck beat out Andrew Garfield, Denzel Washington and Viggo Mortensen to a Golden Globe in the drama category, while Ryan Gosling won a Globe in the musical or comedy category. Washington was not nominated for a BAFTA, the other four were; the prize went to Affleck. And all five gentlemen were in contention at the SAG Awards, where Washington emerged the winner.

Still, in a year when political correctness will be more at play than ever before, Academy voters may hesitate to vote for Affleck considering the cloud of sexual harassment charges he carries as baggage. Likewise, Washington may have an edge because of the manner in which the Academy has been shamed for its pro-white bias in recent years.

If Washington does win though, it would be a pity if the victory is attributed to anything but his stellar turn in Fences. As a householder who invites both sympathy and disgust (the latter is quite an achievement for a man with such a naturally likeable personality) he walked that fine line between being hard to love yet hard to hate on screen. Washington deserves to be named Best Actor at this year’s Oscars, not because of the colour of his skin, but because he did indeed deliver the year’s best performance by any male artiste in 2016.

Likely winner: Denzel Washington

Possible spoiler: Ryan Gosling 

My personal favourite: Denzel Washington

My second choice: Ryan Gosling

A version of this article has been published on Firstpost:

http://www.firstpost.com/entertainment/oscars-2017-predictions-will-moonlight-beat-la-la-land-stats-trends-and-our-picks-3302190.html

Photographs courtesy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_La_Land_(film)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Figures

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonlight_(2016_film)

OSCARS 2016 PREDICTIONS / PUBLISHED ON FIRSTPOST

Leo or Eddie? Brie or Cate? The Revenant or Spotlight? My Picks and the Odds-On Favourites

By Anna MM Vetticad

The world’s most sought-after awards for cinematic achievement are once again up for grabs. The race this year is tough. Will the spotlight fix itself on Spotlight or The Revenant? Will the day belong to a small film about paedophilia, religion and good old-fashioned investigative journalism or to a gory, big-budget extravaganza about a clash between humans and nature, between settlers and the original inhabitants of a vast, challenging land?

The answers will come on the night of Sunday, February 28 in Los Angeles, that is Monday, February 29, morning here in India.

The Academy Awards a.k.a. the Oscars are given away by the US’ Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences each year. Winners are picked by Academy members’ votes, with the final results already lying secured in well-guarded envelopes.

Before their secrets are unwrapped by some of Hollywood’s most glamorous hands (remember, our very own Priyanka Chopra is a presenter this year), arguments will continue worldwide about who will walk away with the honours.

Until then, here are my predictions for the four most-watched trophies of Oscars 2016:

BEST PICTURE:

Nominees:

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

The Best Picture race this year appears to be a three-way fight between Spotlight, The Big Short and The Revenant.

Spotlight – a perfectly paced newsroom drama about The Boston Globe’s series of exposés on sexual abuse by Roman Catholic priests in the United States – was an early favourite in this category. The film was even praised by the RC Church whose failings it sought to highlight.

Its toughest initial competition was from The Revenant, a film that is almost seven times more expensive and infinitely larger in terms of spectacle.

However, the tide turned as the film awards season rolled on, with The Big Short winning the highly predictive Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award. The Big Short is a comedy drama, an unlikely genre considering that its setting is the US financial crisis of 2007-08. Going by certain trends, now this is the film to beat on awards night.

From 1990 till date, only seven times has the Best Picture Oscar not gone to a film that won the year’s PGA Award.

Here is an even more convincing statistic: since 2008, the PGA winner has gone on to collect the Best Picture statuette every time, with 2014 being an unusual year only because there was a tie at the PGA between Gravity and 12 Years A Slave. Then too, 12 Years went on to win the numero uno spot at the Oscars.

Before you think this means the deal is sealed though, keep in mind that Spotlight has picked up the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award for its entire cast, widely viewed by commentators as another Oscar indicator.

And as if that is not enough to confuse the hell out of bookies, The Revenant – a late release compared to the other two – appears to be picking up momentum, riding high on its rising earnings. It won a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama in early January, scooped up the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award in early February and the Best Picture BAFTA just two weeks back, which suggests that the buzz around it is peaking at the right time.

Let me place this on the record: two out of my three least favourite films in this category are poised to win the Best Picture gong. The Big Short, to my mind, lacked the clarity it was aiming for, both The Revenant and Mad Max lacked soul. Spotlight is a better film by a mile, followed by Room. Ah well, c’est la vie.

Likely winner: The Revenant

Possible spoilers, and very close: The Big Short, Spotlight

My personal favourite: Spotlight

Should definitely have been nominated: Inside Out, Pixar’s delightful 3D animation flick about the inner workings of a little girl’s mind that has even received salaams from psychiatrists and child psychologists in the West

Should have been in the reckoning: Carol, Beasts of No Nation (FYI the rules permit 10 Best Picture noms)

BEST DIRECTOR:

Nominees:

Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu for The Revenant

Adam McKay for The Big Short

George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road

Lenny Abrahamson for Room

Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

This one appears to be a foregone conclusion in favour of Alejandro, considering that he has already swept the major awards so far: a Golden Globe and a BAFTA for Best Director, and – the clincher in this slot – the DGA Award. According to the Directors Guild website, “Only seven times since the DGA Award’s inception has the DGA Award winner not won the Academy Award.” That would be only seven times since 1948.

Since 2004, there has been only one occasion when the DGA winner did not go on to get a Best Director Oscar. That solo exception came in 2013 because Ben Affleck was not even nominated for helming Argo, though his film did win the year’s Best Picture Oscar. 

Most likely winner: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

Possible spoiler, by a long shot: George Miller who won the Critics Choice Award for Best Director  

My personal favourite: Tom McCarthy for his phenomenally controlled direction of Spotlight

My second choice: Lenny Abrahamson for Room

Should have been nominated: Pete Doctor and Ronnie del Carmen for Inside Out, Todd Haynes for Carol. If you’ve read my Best Picture notes, you know whom I would have liked to drop.

BEST ACTRESS:

Nominees:

Brie Larson for Room

Cate Blanchett for Carol

Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years

Jennifer Lawrence for Joy

Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn

The top contender in this category is 26-year-old Brie with her restrained performance as a young woman kept hostage by her rapist in a tiny shed for seven years. It was an exacting role, especially since she had to share that space and its demands with a prodigious livewire by the name of Jacob Tremblay, playing her child from the rapist.

She has already got the year’s Golden Globe, Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA Awards. A win by anyone else, wonderfully gifted though they all are, will come as a shocker.

Most likely winner: Brie Larson

Closest competitor: Saoirse Ronan 

My personal favourite: Brie Larson

Should have been nominated: Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl (she has received a Best Supporting Actress nom instead)

Should not have been nominated: Jennifer Lawrence who ought to have got minus marks for her inexplicably deadpan concluding scene in the unremarkable and joyless Joy

Most probably talked her way out of the reckoning: British veteran Charlotte Rampling with her comment that this year’s diversity row at the Oscars is “racist to white people”. An artist’s stupidity should ideally not affect her chances, but the already beleaguered Academy may avoid her considering the tongue-lashing it is already getting for ignoring non-white actors for a second year in a row. 

BEST ACTOR:

Nominees:

Bryan Cranston for Trumbo

Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl

Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant

Matt Damon for The Martian

Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs

Will this be the year Leo finally makes it? The Titanic star has been nominated in this category a total of four times including this year, the other nods he has received so far being for Aviator, Blood Diamond and The Wolf of Wall Street. He was earlier a Best Supporting Actor nominee for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape.

Take it from me – his disadvantage all this time has been that he is too pretty for Academy voters. This lot seems to prefer rugged or pared-down looks, best exemplified by how gorgeous women greatly up their chances of winning when they tone down their glamour quotient. Cases in point: Nicole Kidman, Hillary Swank, Halle Berry, Charlize Theron.

This is not to say that Leonardo is not compelling in The Revenant. He is. He must be particularly lauded for rising above the limitations of the script to deliver such a heartfelt performance (there I go again, grimacing at this emotionally empty film). Good for him then that he has improved his odds by uglifying himself for this demanding role of a fur hunter in early 1800s America, battling the elements and his own people. His face is covered with muck, blood or gashes through most of The Revenant, he ate raw bison liver for one scene and went naked into the belly of a horse carcass in one of the film’s most unsettling moments. If that does not do it for our boy Leo, nothing will.

It will be a huge upset if one of his tremendously talented competitors pips him to the post.

Likely winner: Leonardo DiCaprio

Possible spoiler, by a long shot: Michael Fassbender 

My personal favourites: Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne

Should have been considered: Jacob Tremblay for Room, Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation, Tom Courtenay for 45 Years

One of them could have replaced: Matt Damon perhaps? I mean, Matt’s likeable as always in The Martian, but he has done more onerous roles in the past.

(This article was published on Firstpost on February 28, 2016)

Original link:

http://www.firstpost.com/bollywood/oscars-2016-predictions-leo-or-eddie-brie-or-cate-the-revenant-or-spotlight-our-picks-and-the-odds-on-favourites-2646756.html

Related article by Anna MM Vetticad: Who’s Afraid of a Homosexual Woman

http://annavetticadgoes2themovies.blogspot.in/2016/02/carol-attitudes-to-lgbt-themes-at.html

Photo caption: (1) The Revenant (2) Spotlight (3) Room

Posters courtesy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Revenant_(2015_film)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotlight_(film)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room_(2015_film)